Research

Working Papers

15. Do Development Financial Institutions Create Impact through Venture Capital Investments?, 2025 (with Andy Li and Paul Smeets).

Abstract

Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) manage assets totaling $23 trillion, yet little research has been conducted on their investment activities and impact. We document that DFIs have increasingly invested in venture capital (VC) over the past three decades, participating as limited partners in one out of every six deals. We collect the mandates of DFIs and identify four main objectives they pursue through VC investments: building a VC ecosystem, supporting entrepreneurship and small and medium-sized enterprises, fostering innovation, and promoting sustainable business practices. We empirically test whether DFIs meet these objectives by addressing market failures, including externalities, information frictions, and coordination challenges. Our findings vary between developed and developing economies. In developing economies, DFIs are more likely to target industries with positive externalities, provide capital to underrepresented fund managers, and improve return transparency. However, they are less likely than conventional VC investors to support young funds or early-stage deals, and their investments have no significant impact on firm growth or innovation. In developed economies, we find little evidence that DFIs address market failures and their impact is even more limited. Overall, our findings suggest that DFIs have significant room to enhance their impact by better addressing market failures, aligning investments with stated mandates, and embracing higher risk in their portfolios.

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14. Target Date Funds and International Capital Flows, 2024 (with Esther Eiling and Danjun Xu).

Abstract

Target date funds (TDFs) are investment products designed based on the life-cycle theory to provide exposure to risky assets conditional on investors' age. Even though life-cycle portfolio choice models do not distinguish between different subcategories of risky assets, we document that in practice, TDFs adopt and maintain rigid allocation weights to domestic and foreign equities. Our main finding is that TDFs implement contrarian rebalancing trades. These trades offset 53% of the mechanical allocation changes caused by realized differences in returns between domestic and foreign equities within the same quarter. TDFs are organized as funds-of-mutual-funds and their holdings account for 10% of the total assets managed by U.S. foreign equity mutual funds in 2022. We show that TDFs' contrarian rebalancing trades have three implications for international capital markets. First, the growth of TDFs significantly changes the prevalent positive flow-performance sensitivity among mutual funds: foreign equity mutual funds with higher TDF ownership experience outflows when foreign equity outperforms domestic equity. Second, the returns on foreign stocks with higher TDF ownership co-move more with the U.S. equity market and less with the foreign equity market. Finally, at an aggregate level, currencies affected more by TDF rebalancing flows appreciate more when the U.S. stock market delivers higher returns.

SSRN link

13. The Shifting Finance of Electricity Generation, 2024 (with Joshua D. Rauh).

Abstract

Despite the incentives of incumbent domestic listed corporations (DLCs) in the electricity generation industry, private equity, institutional investors, and foreign corporations have played an outsized role in financing the energy transition. These new entrants are twice as likely to create power plants as incumbents. They owned 58% of wind, 47% of solar, and 34% of natural gas electricity production as of 2020. The ownership changes are concentrated in deregulated wholesale markets which attract more capital from new entrants to create renewable and natural gas plants, acquire existing plants, and accelerate the decommissioning of coal plants. Sales of fossil fuel plants from DLCs to foreign corporations result in some leakage, but private equity has similar decommissioning rates to incumbents. The new ownership types create more efficient power plants with a lower heat rate and improve the efficiency of acquired plants. Our results also highlight an important tradeoff in bringing new financing sources to the electricity sector. When selling electricity, private equity and foreign corporations use contracts with shorter duration, shorter increment pricing, and more peak-period sales, and obtain a $2.59 higher average price per MWh.

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12. Choosing Pension Fund Investment Consultants, 2025 (with Matteo Bonetti and Irina Stefanescu).

Abstract

We examine the role of investment consultants in shaping the investment policies of U.S. public pension funds. General consultants assist pension funds with asset allocation decisions, and their clients implement similar target allocations. Specialized consultants are increasingly hired to advise on scaling-up investments in private markets and their clients achieve this often by selecting the same asset managers. The convergence in allocations and investments among pension funds using the same consultant, coupled with growing consultant concentration, has significant implications. Although consultants do not improve access to managers in private markets and overall performance, they substantially influence allocations and capital flows.

SSRN link

11. Overallocated Investors and Secondary Transactions, 2024 (with Rustam Abuzov and Josh Lerner).

Abstract

We study how portfolio rebalancing needs drive secondary transactions of illiquid stakes in private equity (PE) partnerships. To identify secondary sales of limited partner (LP) interests, we use the return reporting patterns of public investors for funds underlying their portfolio. We find that pensions overallocated in PE tend to sell their stakes in the secondary market, rather than increasing their target allocation or reducing the number of new commitments. The evidence from the distribution of discounts highlights the costs of this denominator effect due to self-imposed portfolio rebalancing policies at public plans.

10. Pension Funds and Liquidity Shocks, 2025 (with Kristy A.E. Jansen, and Joshua D. Rauh).

Recipient of the NBER Project on Financial Frictions and Systemic Risk Funding Grant 2024/2025

Publications

9. Delegated Investment Management in Alternative Assets, 2024, Review of Corporate Finance Studies, 13(1), pp. 264–301.

Abstract

Institutional investors can be segmented into investors that hold simple portfolios of traditional equities and bonds, and investors that manage complex strategies in public and private markets. Investors implementing active portfolio management and holding diversified portfolios of equities and bonds are more likely to invest in alternative asset classes. The performance of institutional investors in alternative assets is significantly lower than in equities, suggesting that investors accept lower returns in exchange for diversification benefits. Institutions delegate 90% of their alternative investments to external managers and funds-of-funds. These intermediaries capture large part of the potential diversification benefits through higher fees and lower returns.

RCFS link

8. The Return Expectations of Public Pension Funds, 2022, Review of Financial Studies, 35(8), pp. 3777–3822 (with Joshua D. Rauh).

Earlier Version: The Return Expectations of Institutional Investors

Abstract

The return expectations of public pension funds are positively related to cross-sectional differences in past performance. This positive relation operates through the expected risk premium, rather than the expected risk-free rate or inflation rate. Pension funds act on their beliefs and adjust their portfolio composition accordingly. Persistent investment skills, risk-taking, efforts to reduce costly rebalancing, and fiscal incentives from unfunded liabilities cannot fully explain the reliance of expectations on past performance. The results are consistent with extrapolative expectations, as the dependence on past returns is greater when executives have personally experienced longer performance histories with the fund.

RFS link

RFS Dataverse: Data on Pension Fund Expected Returns and Target Allocation Weights by Asset Class

7. Institutional Investors and Infrastructure Investing, 2021, Review of Financial Studies, 34(8), pp. 3880-3934 (with Roman Kraussl and Joshua D. Rauh).

Earlier Version: The Subsidy to Infrastructure as an Asset Class

Abstract

Institutional investors expect infrastructure to deliver long-term stable returns but gain exposure to infrastructure predominantly through finite-horizon closed private funds. The cash flows delivered by infrastructure funds display similar volatility and cyclicality as other private equity investments, and their performance depends similarly on quick deal exits. Despite weak risk-adjusted performance and failure to match the supposed characteristics of infrastructure assets, closed funds have received more commitments over time, particularly from public investors. Public institutional investors perform worse than private institutional investors, and ESG preferences and regulations explain 25-40% of their increased allocation to infrastructure and 30% of their underperformance.

RFS link

UN PRI Blog: The Underperformance of Public Institutional Investors in Infrastructure

Stanford SIEPR Policy Brief: Private investigations - Can Institutional Investors Fill the Infrastructure Gap?

6. Political Representation and Governance: Evidence from the Investment Decisions of Public Pension Funds, 2018, Journal of Finance, 73(5), pp. 2041-2086 (with Yael V. Hochberg and Joshua D. Rauh).

Abstract

Representation on pension fund boards by state officials—often determined by statute decades past—is negatively related to the performance of private equity investments made by the pension fund, despite state officials’ relatively strong financial education and experience. Their underperformance appears to be partly driven by poor investment decisions consistent with political expediency, and is also positively related to political contributions from the finance industry. Boards dominated by elected rank‐and‐file plan participants also underperform, but to a smaller extent and due to these trustees’ lesser financial experience.

JF link

5. Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates, 2017, Review of Financial Studies, 30(8), pp. 2555-2595 (with Rob Bauer and Martijn Cremers).

Abstract

The unique regulation of U.S. public pension funds links their liability discount rate to the expected return on assets, which gives them incentives to invest more in risky assets in order to report a better funding status. Comparing public and private pension funds in the U.S., Canada, and Europe, we find that U.S. public pension funds act on their regulatory incentives. U.S. public pension funds with a higher level of underfunding per participant, as well as funds with more politicians and elected plan participants serving on the board, take more risk and use higher discount rates. The increased risk-taking by U.S. public funds is negatively related to their performance.

RFS link
Online Appendix

4. Intermediated Investment Management in Private Markets: Evidence From Pension Fund Investments in Real Estate, 2015, Journal of Financial Markets, 22, pp. 73-103 (with Piet Eichholtz and Nils Kok).

Abstract

We evaluate the economics of financial intermediation in alternative assets by investigating the allocation and performance of pension fund investments in real estate, the most significant alternative asset class for institutional investors. We document substantial heterogeneity in real estate investment cost and performance, determined by two main factors: mandate size and investment approach. Larger pension funds are more likely to invest in real estate internally, have lower costs, and higher net returns. Smaller pension funds invest primarily in direct real estate through external managers and fund-of-funds, and disregard listed property companies. Overall, we find that delegating real estate investment management to financial intermediaries increases costs and disproportionally reduces returns.

JFM link

3. A Global Perspective on Pension Fund Investments in Real Estate, 2013, Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(5), pp. 32-42 (with Piet Eichholtz and Nils Kok).

JPM link

2. TIPS, Inflation Expectations, and the Financial Crisis, 2010, Financial Analysts Journal, 66(6), pp. 27-39 (with Florian Bardong and Thorsten Lehnert).

Abstract

The authors show that inefficiencies in the U.S. market for inflation-linked bonds can be exploited by informed traders who include survey estimates or inflation model forecasts in trades on breakeven inflation. The Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market has yet to fulfill investors’ expectations as a low-risk, efficient, and liquid financial instrument.

FAJ link

Permanent Working Paper

1. Can Large Pension Funds Beat the Market? Asset Allocation, Market Timing, Security Selection and the Limits of Liquidity, 2012 (with Rob Bauer and Martijn Cremers).

Abstract

We analyze the three components of active management (asset allocation, market timing and security selection) in the net performance of U.S. pension funds and relate these to fund size and the liquidity of the investments. On average, the funds in our sample have an annual net alpha of 89 basis points that is evenly distributed across the asset allocation, market timing, and security selection components. Stock momentum fully explains the positive alpha in security selection, whereas “time series momentum” drives market timing. While larger pension funds have lower investment costs, this does not lead to better net performance. Rather, all three components of active management exhibit substantial diseconomies of scale directly related to illiquidity. Our results suggest that especially the larger pension funds would have done better if they invested more in passive mandates without frequent rebalancing across asset classes.

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